‘The
Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You” read a headline in the New York Times last fall. This astounding
claim, presented in the media as fact and evidence of inequities baked into
President Trump’s 2017 tax cut, came from two economists at the University of
California, Berkeley. Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman asserted that 2018 was
the first year in U.S. history that the average tax rate on the 400 wealthiest
income earners dipped below the rates paid by the lower-middle class and poor.
Finally, we had proof the rich weren’t paying
their fair share. But new data from the Internal Revenue Service suggest it
isn’t true.
The Saez-Zucman analysis raised eyebrows among
other economists who study tax data, in part because they claimed it reflected
the first full year under the new tax rates. At the time they published their
study, the IRS had yet to release the data necessary to make the calculations
they described. Preliminary numbers for 2018 income-tax
returns, covering all filings made by last year’s Oct. 15 extended
deadline, came out only last week. These data tell a very different story:
America’s wealthiest earners still carry the lion’s share of the tax burden.
Closer inspection reveals that Messrs. Saez and
Zucman imputed the tax rates they claim for 2018 from records that predated the
Trump tax cut, and therefore didn’t capture its effect on the measured
distribution of income. They built in opaque assumptions that now appear to
have exaggerated the tax cut’s benefit to high-income earners.
This wasn’t the only problem with the Saez-Zucman
statistics. Their alleged 23% tax rate paid by the highest earners—encompassing
all federal, state and local taxes—fell below the Congressional Budget Office’s
estimates for the top income percentile’s federal tax rate
alone. The two economists’ tax rates for the poor also looked suspiciously
high. A 25% rate for the lowest quintile of earners would be almost twice the
level found in other
estimates, including those using better-established data from the
Congressional Budget Office and the nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and
Economic Policy. The discrepancy arose from Messrs. Saez and Zucman’s exclusion
of the earned-income tax credit for low-income households, artificially
inflating the amount of tax the poor really pay.
The new IRS numbers now provide reason to doubt
Messrs. Saez and Zucman’s entire narrative of a regressive U.S. tax system
designed to favor the rich at the expense of the poor. The IRS reports
effective income-tax rates on the adjusted gross incomes of different groups of
earners. That’s the percentage of income that people actually pay to the
government, as distinct from the statutory tax rate.
According to the IRS, the top 0.01% of
earners—those with incomes above $10 million—paid a 24.8% effective federal
income-tax rate in 2018. This isn’t very different from the 25.3% the group
paid in 2017, and is higher than the average rate of 22.5% on the same group
during the George W. Bush administration. As these rates only encompass federal
income taxes, most filers can expect to add another 8% to 12% of income from
other forms of taxation, placing their total burden well above the Saez-Zucman
numbers.
How does that affect the claims of regressivity?
It’s true the remainder of the top 1% (those with incomes between roughly
$500,000 and $10 million) paid a slightly higher effective rate, at 26.5%, than
the top 0.01% did. But tax rates drop rapidly from there, with filers in the
$50,000 to $75,000 reporting bracket (approximately the median U.S. family
income) facing an average federal income-tax rate of 8.4%.
People who earned between $15,000 and $40,000
paid an average federal rate of merely 4% of their adjusted gross incomes in
2018. And thanks to the earned-income tax credit and others like it, the
poorest earners paid very little if any federal income tax at all.
In short, the federal income-tax structure still
places the unambiguous bulk of its burden on the highest earners. The Trump tax
cut hasn’t changed that. In 2018, the top 1% of U.S. earners paid roughly 37%
of all federal income taxes. The top 5% paid around 58%. This suggests that
policy makers wishing to mitigate regressive features of the tax system should
look elsewhere. State and local sales and property taxes may be a more
promising area for reform.
The IRS’s preliminary data also suggests that the
needle on income inequality—the motive force behind the Saez-Zucman research
and the wealth-tax proposals it has been used to support—hasn’t moved lately.
The share of adjusted gross income that went to the top 1% in 2018 was
essentially the same as it was a decade earlier, at least going by the IRS
numbers. The same is true of the top 0.1% and even the top 0.01%, the ultrarich
so often targeted in political rhetoric from the left.
The full economic effects of the Trump tax cut
extend beyond personal income-tax rates, and will be seen in the data only when
future statistical releases become available. The corporate income-tax cut, for
example, will likely prompt high earners to shift income from their personal
returns to corporate returns, further lowering the measured income shares of
the top 1%. Ironically, the reduction in the corporate tax rate could lead to a
statistical reduction in income inequality.
In their rush to embrace a convenient political
narrative last fall, much of the press and political classes never considered
the possibility that the data would undermine their story. It did.
Mr. Magness
is a senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research.
Mr. Miller is an associate professor of economics at Troy University.
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